PREFACE: Beyond the Numbers
A Student-Centered Approach to Learning Statistical Reasoning XI
Overview of the Workbook XI
How This Book Has Changed and Why XI
Exercises Old and New XIII
Relevancy Still a Priority XIII
Software as Part of a College Education XIII
About the Author XIV
CHAPTER 1: Number Sense: Basic Numeracy 1
Introduction 1
Human Inference 1
Decimal Points and Deceptive Charts 3
Decimal Points 3
Deceptive Graphs 4
Chapter 1 Exercises 6
Reading Check 6
Beyond the Numbers 6
-
-
-
- Cocaine and Kids 6
- Was Kobe Streaking? 8
- You Are So Random. Or Maybe Not. 8
- Cutting the Corpus Callosum 9
- Have I Got a Story for You! 10
Projects 11
-
-
-
- Very Lucky Project 11
- Uncovering Your Own Slippery Evidence 11
CHAPTER 2: Number Sense: Basic Computational Skills and Benchmarks 13
Introduction 13
Check Calculations 13
Rate Rates 14
Say the Unsaid 15
Know Some Benchmarks 16
Master Background Bugaboos 18
Means and Medians 18
Back to College Level 19
Standard Deviation 20
Histograms 23
Chapter 2 Exercises 27
Reading Check 27
Beyond the Numbers 27
-
-
-
- Nimble Numbers 27
- Violence in Chicago 29
- Difficult Dilbert Dialogue 31
- Contraception Deception 32
- Nursing Knowledge Needed 33
- Statistical Citizenship 33
- Winging Out Some Computations 35
- A BIGS Change 36
- Gates-Proof Inference 37
- The Spice of Life 38
- Visual Validation 41
Projects 42
-
-
-
- Administration Salaries 42
- Reality Video 43
CHAPTER 3: Statistical Experiments and the Problem of Confounding 45
A Working Definition 45
Troublemaker: Confounding 45
Example Revisited 46
Necessary Language 47
Proper Comparisons and Randomization 48
The Placebo Effect 48
Vocabulary and Diagrams 49
Randomization 49
Statistical Significance 50
What’s the Issue? 31
Chapter 3 Exercises 53
Reading Check 53
Beyond the Numbers 54
-
-
-
- Slippery Evidence and Confounding 54
- Make Mine a Large 55
- Brains and Beats 55
- Fuzzy Quasi Is a Bear 56
- Experimentation Takes Flight 58
- Catching on to Experimentation 59
- Cancer Carafe 61
- Of Mice and People 62
- Random Reflections 63
- Random Opposition 64
- A Badge of Big 65
- Designer Thoughts 66
- What to Believe? 68
Projects 69
-
-
-
- Designing Your Own Experiment: Part I 69
- Reality Video 70
CHAPTER 4: Sampling: Purpose and Challenges 71
Introduction 71
How NOT to Sample 72
Simple Language 73
Simple Random Sampling 76
Practically Speaking 77
Key Idea Revisited 79
Dewey Defeats Truman 79
Chapter 4 Exercises 81
Practice and Basic Comprehension 81
Beyond the Numbers 81
-
-
-
- Texting Error 81
- A Weak Majority 82
- Push and Pull Opinions 83
- Monkey Surveys 85
- Random Evolution 85
- Careful Counting 85
- Social Media Sampling 86
- Bravos for Bucks 87
- Bezos Bosom Buddy 88
- Gulliver Travels 88
- Fondue Folly 89
- No-Stumble Sampling 90
- Social Media Sampling—Revisited 91
- Purposive Sampling 92
- Getting Gallup 93
- Weighting Room 94
Projects 69
-
-
-
- Conducting a Formal Survey: Part I 95
- Reality Video 97
CHAPTER 5: Confidence Intervals: What They Are and How We Use Them 99
Introduction 99
Random Sampling Error 100
Anatomy of the Confidence Interval 101
Margin of Error 101
Results for Sample Proportion 102
Results for Sample Mean 102
What Kind of Confidence? 103
Chapter 5 Exercises 106
Reading Check 106
Beyond the Numbers 106
-
-
-
- MOE Information Needed 106
- Is It Warm in Here? 108
- Americans and Their Guns 109
- Sticker Shock 110
- A Common Challenge 112
- Inaugural Intervals 114
Projects 115
-
-
-
- Conducting a Formal Survey: Part II 115
- Designing Your Own Experiment: Part II 117
- Reality Video 119
CHAPTER 6: Confidence Intervals: Where They Come From 121
Introduction 121
Sampling Distributions 121
The Empirical Rule 123
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion 125
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean 127
So Where DO Confidence Intervals Come From? 129
Chapter 6 Exercises 131
Reading Check 131
Beyond the Numbers 131
-
-
-
- Connecting Relative Area to Probability 131
- Face in Class Books 132
- Class on Facebook? 133
- Denying the Pass 134
- Making the Pass 135
- Sizing up a Poll 136
Projects 137
-
-
-
- Rolling Bells 137
- Repetition Confidence 138
- Reality Video 140
CHAPTER 7: Sampling: When Probability Isn’t Enough 141
Introduction 141
Biased or Poorly Constructed Questions 142
Subject Nonresponse 143
Questions Are Too Sensitive 144
Subjects Are Too Busy or Uninterested 145
Consequences Are Real 145
Chapter 7 Exercises 147
Reading Check 147
Beyond the Numbers 147
-
-
-
- That’s Getting Personal 147
- Bully Folly 148
- Healthcare and Harris Reform 148
- Survey Says! 150
- Pay to Play 151
- No Pay Replay 152
- Some Pay Saves Day 153
- No Pay for Your Say 153
- Knotty Not 154
- When You Say It That Way 154
Projects 155
-
-
-
- Does Race Still Matter? 155
- Reality Video 156
CHAPTER 8: The Language of Decision Making 157
Introduction 157
Evaluating Screening Tests 157
Practicing the Computations 160
A Little More Language 165
Bayes’ Rule 165
Chapter 8 Exercises 168
Reading Check 168
Beyond the Numbers 168
-
-
-
- Grading the FOB 168
- More on the FST 170
- Bending the Rules 172
- Stairway Stumble 174
- CAGE Practice 175
- Relevant Prevalence 177
- Will Count for Sex 178
- Let the Algebra Speak! 179
- Rarely Wrong 180
- Confirming Bayes’ Rule One More Time 180
Projects 181
-
-
-
- Statistical Wooziness 181
- Party Test 183
- A Test for Gender 185
Task 1—The Initial Validation Attempt 186
Task 2—Reflection on the Initial Validation Attempt 187
Task 3—The Initial Validation Attempt on the Subsetted Data 187
Task 4—Reflection on This Initial Validation Attempt188Task 5—Putting This All Together 188
- Reality Video 190
CHAPTER 9: Hypothesis Testing: Concepts and Consumption 191
Introduction 191
A Paradigm for Hypothesis Testing 192
Reading with a Statistical Eye 195
The Elusive and Confusing p-value 201
Chapter 9 Exercises 203
Reading Check 203
Beyond the Numbers 203
-
-
-
- Pumpkin Powered Prostates 203
- Stutter Stopper? 204
- Statistics and Libido 206
- Rocky Biloba 207
- Unofficially Dangerous? 209
- Prescription to Pass 210
- Albatross Adaptability 212
- Do I Have To? 212
- Dangerous Training 213
- Voucher Vouch 214
- Legally Speaking 215
- Alternative Evidence 216
- Power and Beauty 216
- Error Rates and p-Values 219
Projects 221
-
-
-
- Statistical Significance in the News 221
- Reality Video 221
CHAPTER 10: Hypothesis Testing: Computations 223
Introduction 223
From Words to Parameters 223
When the Parameter Is a Proportion 225
Single-Sided with a Greater-than Alternative 225
Single-Sided with a Less-than Alternative 227
Double-Sided with a Not-Equal Alternative 228
When the Parameter Is a Mean 229
Chapter 10 Exercises 232
Reading Check 232
Beyond the Numbers 232
-
-
-
- One and Done 232
- Party Green 233
- Got No Satisfaction? 233
- Cancer Treatment 234
- Vytorin Verified 235
- Mary Jane Brain 236
- Eureka or Not? 237
- Better than Chance? 238
- Crowd Control 239
- A Tail of Two Hypotheses 240
- Mean from the Corps 241
- Double Trouble 243
- New Use for Old Intervals 245
Projects 246
-
-
-
- Conducting a Formal Survey: Part III 246
- Designing Your Own Experiment: Part III 248
- Reality Video 249
CHAPTER 11: Hypothesis Testing: Importance of Clinical Significance 251
Introduction 251
Informal Assessment of Practical Significance 252
Structured Assessment of Practical Significance 256
Minimal Clinically Important Difference 256
The Idea of Effect Size 258
From Effect Size to Sample Size 259
Chapter 11 Exercises 263
Reading Check 263
Beyond the Numbers 263
-
-
-
- Effect Size Matters 263
- The Economics of No Significance 264
- The N Crowd 265
- Multivitamins and Cancer 267
- A Measure of Effect for Proportions 268
Projects 269
-
-
-
- Effect Size and Error Rate 269
- Designing Your Own Experiment: Part IV 270
- Reality Video 272
CHAPTER 12: More than One Variable: Association and Correlation 273
Introduction 273
Measurement Levels 273
Association for Ratio Data 274
Graphical Representation of Association 274
Numerical Assessment of Association 278
Transforming a Curvilinear Scatter 281
Association for Nominal Data 283
Graphical Representation of Association 283
Numerical Assessment of Association 284
Chapter 12 Exercises 288
Reading Check 288
Beyond the Numbers 288
-
-
-
- Data Leveling 288
- Anscombe’s Activity 290
- Mortality and Global Warming 291
- Global Warming Transformed 292
- Heptathletes 293
- Cage the Pools 295
- Smoking and Heart Health 296
- Smoking and Heart Health 297
Projects 297
-
-
-
- Ball Park or Bull’s Eye? 297
- Drug Deaths and Income 299
- Reality Video 300
CHAPTER 13: Association and Causation: More than Meets the Eye 301
Introduction 301
Spurious Curious 302
Correlation as Evidence of Causation 306
Simpson’s Paradox 309
Chapter 13 Exercises 311
Reading Check 311
Beyond the Numbers 311
-
-
-
- Biology for Breakfast 311
- Mortality and Global Warming 313
- Some Bran Flakes on My Doughnut, Please 313
- College Sex at Berkeley 314
- Race and the Death Penalty 316
Projects 318
-
-
-
- Experts’ Advice 318
- I Got Your Simpson Right Here 318
- Reality Video 320
Appendix 321
Introduction 321
Quick Reference 322
Tables 324
Cancer Survival Data Table 328
Child Mortality Rate and CO2 Emissions 329
Standard Score Table 334
Three Sample Rubrics for Assessing Group Work 335
Peer Evaluation Form for Group Work 335
Exercises Old and New
If you had the opportunity to use one of the earlier editions of this book, then you will be pleased to know that nearly all of the activities have remained the same. A few have been absorbed into the chapter material, but most are simply positioned in the format of exercises following the appropriate content. There have been quite a few new exercises added. All of these are in the same student-centered format that has always characterized this book. Every chapter has at least two project activities as well, and two different capstone projects emerge one step at a time as different chapters are covered.