Table of Contents

PREFACE: Beyond the Numbers

  • A Student-Centered Approach to Learning Statistical ReasoningXI
  • Overview of the WorkbookXI
  • How This Book Has Changed and WhyXI
  • Exercises Old and NewXIII
  • ​Relevancy Still a PriorityXIII
  • Software as Part of a College EducationXIII
  • About the AuthorXIV

 

  • CHAPTER 1: Number Sense: Basic Numeracy1
  • Introduction1
  • Human Inference1
  • Decimal Points and Deceptive Charts3
  • Decimal Points3
  • Deceptive Graphs4
  • Chapter 1 Exercises6
  • Reading Check6
  • Beyond the Numbers6
  • 1. Cocaine and Kids6
  • 2. Was Kobe Streaking?8
  • 3. You Are So Random. Or Maybe Not.8
  • 4. Cutting the Corpus Callosum9
  • 5. Have I Got a Story for You!10
  • Projects11
  • 1. Very Lucky Project11
  • 2. Uncovering Your Own Slippery Evidence11

 

  • CHAPTER 2: Number Sense: Basic Computational Skills and Benchmarks13
  • Introduction13
  • Check Calculations13
  • Rate Rates14
  • Say the Unsaid15
  • Know Some Benchmarks16
  • Master Background Bugaboos18
  • Means and Medians18
  • Back to College Level19
  • Standard Deviation20
  • Histograms23
  • Chapter 2 Exercises27
  • Reading Check27
  • Beyond the Numbers27
  • 1. Nimble Numbers27
  • 2. Violence in Chicago29
  • 3. Difficult Dilbert Dialogue31
  • 4. Contraception Deception32
  • 5. Nursing Knowledge Needed33
  • 6. Statistical Citizenship33
  • 7. Winging Out Some Computations35
  • 8. A BIGS Change36
  • 9. Gates-Proof Inference37
  • 10. The Spice of Life38
  • 11. Visual Validation41
  • Projects42
  • 1. Administration Salaries42
  • 2. Reality Video43

 

  • CHAPTER 3: Statistical Experiments and the Problem of Confounding45
  • A Working Definition45
  • Troublemaker: Confounding45
  • Example Revisited46
  • Necessary Language47
  • Proper Comparisons and Randomization48
  • The Placebo Effect48
  • Vocabulary and Diagrams49
  • Randomization49
  • Statistical Significance50
  • What’s the Issue?31
  • Chapter 3 Exercises53
  • Reading Check53
  • Beyond the Numbers54
  • 1. Slippery Evidence and Confounding54
  • 2. Make Mine a Large55
  • 3. Brains and Beats55
  • 4. Fuzzy Quasi Is a Bear56
  • 5. Experimentation Takes Flight58
  • 6. Catching on to Experimentation59
  • 7. Cancer Carafe61
  • 8. Of Mice and People62
  • 9. Random Reflections63
  • 10. Random Opposition64
  • 11. A Badge of Big65
  • 12. Designer Thoughts66
  • 13. What to Believe?68
  • Projects69
  • 1. Designing Your Own Experiment: Part I69
  • 2. Reality Video70

 

  • CHAPTER 4: Sampling: Purpose and Challenges71
  • Introduction71
  • How NOT to Sample72
  • Simple Language73
  • Simple Random Sampling76
  • Practically Speaking77
  • Key Idea Revisited79
  • Dewey Defeats Truman79
  • Chapter 4 Exercises81
  • Practice and Basic Comprehension81
  • Beyond the Numbers81
  • 1. Texting Error81
  • 2. A Weak Majority82
  • 3. Push and Pull Opinions83
  • 4. Monkey Surveys85
  • 5. Random Evolution85
  • 6. Careful Counting85
  • 7. Social Media Sampling86
  • 8. Bravos for Bucks87
  • 9. Bezos Bosom Buddy88
  • 10. Gulliver Travels88
  • 11. Fondue Folly89
  • 12. No-Stumble Sampling90
  • 13. Social Media Sampling—Revisited91
  • 14. Purposive Sampling92
  • 15. Getting Gallup93
  • 16. Weighting Room94
  • Projects69
  • 1. Conducting a Formal Survey: Part I95
  • 2. Reality Video97

 

  • CHAPTER 5: Confidence Intervals: What They Are and How We Use Them99
  • Introduction99
  • Random Sampling Error100
  • Anatomy of the Confidence Interval101
  • Margin of Error101
  • Results for Sample Proportion102
  • Results for Sample Mean102
  • What Kind of Confidence?103
  • Chapter 5 Exercises106
  • Reading Check106
  • Beyond the Numbers106
  • 1. MOE Information Needed106
  • 2. Is It Warm in Here?108
  • 3. Americans and Their Guns109
  • 4. Sticker Shock110
  • 5. A Common Challenge112
  • 6. Inaugural Intervals114
  • Projects115
  • 1. Conducting a Formal Survey: Part II115
  • 2. Designing Your Own Experiment: Part II117
  • 3. Reality Video119

 

  • CHAPTER 6: Confidence Intervals: Where They Come From121
  • Introduction121
  • Sampling Distributions121
  • The Empirical Rule123
  • Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion125
  • Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean127
  • So Where DO Confidence Intervals Come From?129
  • Chapter 6 Exercises131
  • Reading Check131
  • Beyond the Numbers131
  • 1. Connecting Relative Area to Probability131
  • 2. Face in Class Books132
  • 3. Class on Facebook?133
  • 4. Denying the Pass134
  • 5. Making the Pass135
  • 6. Sizing up a Poll136
  • Projects137
  • 1. Rolling Bells137
  • 2. Repetition Confidence138
  • 3. Reality Video140

 

  • CHAPTER 7: Sampling: When Probability Isn’t Enough141
  • Introduction141
  • Biased or Poorly Constructed Questions142
  • Subject Nonresponse143
  • Questions Are Too Sensitive144
  • Subjects Are Too Busy or Uninterested145
  • Consequences Are Real145
  • Chapter 7 Exercises147
  • Reading Check147
  • Beyond the Numbers147
  • 1. That’s Getting Personal147
  • 2. Bully Folly148
  • 3. Healthcare and Harris Reform148
  • 4. Survey Says!150
  • 5. Pay to Play151
  • 6. No Pay Replay152
  • 7. Some Pay Saves Day153
  • 8. No Pay for Your Say153
  • 9. Knotty Not154
  • 10. When You Say It That Way154
  • Projects155
  • 1. Does Race Still Matter?155
  • 2. Reality Video156

 

  • CHAPTER 8: The Language of Decision Making157
  • Introduction157
  • Evaluating Screening Tests157
  • Practicing the Computations160
  • A Little More Language165
  • Bayes’ Rule165
  • Chapter 8 Exercises168
  • Reading Check168
  • Beyond the Numbers168
  • 1. Grading the FOB168
  • 2. More on the FST170
  • 3. Bending the Rules172
  • 4. Stairway Stumble174
  • 5. CAGE Practice175
  • 6. Relevant Prevalence177
  • 7. Will Count for Sex178
  • 8. Let the Algebra Speak!179
  • 9. Rarely Wrong180
  • 10. Confirming Bayes’ Rule One More Time180
  • Projects181
  • 1. Statistical Wooziness181
  • 2. Party Test183
  • 3. A Test for Gender185
  • Task 1—The Initial Validation Attempt186
  • Task 2—Reflection on the Initial Validation Attempt187
  • Task 3—The Initial Validation Attempt on the Subsetted Data187
  • Task 4—Reflection on This Initial Validation Attempt188
  • Task 5—Putting This All Together188
  • 4. Reality Video190

 

  • CHAPTER 9: Hypothesis Testing: Concepts and Consumption191
  • Introduction191
  • A Paradigm for Hypothesis Testing192
  • Reading with a Statistical Eye195
  • The Elusive and Confusing p-value201
  • Chapter 9 Exercises203
  • Reading Check203
  • Beyond the Numbers203
  • 1. Pumpkin Powered Prostates203
  • 2. Stutter Stopper?204
  • 3. Statistics and Libido206
  • 4. Rocky Biloba207
  • 5. Unofficially Dangerous?209
  • 6. Prescription to Pass210
  • 7. Albatross Adaptability212
  • 8. Do I Have To?212
  • 9. Dangerous Training213
  • 10. Voucher Vouch214
  • 11. Legally Speaking215
  • 12. Alternative Evidence216
  • 13. Power and Beauty216
  • 14. Error Rates and p-Values219
  • Projects221
  • 1. Statistical Significance in the News221
  • 2. Reality Video221

 

  • CHAPTER 10: Hypothesis Testing: Computations223
  • Introduction223
  • From Words to Parameters223
  • When the Parameter Is a Proportion225
  • Single-Sided with a Greater-than Alternative225
  • Single-Sided with a Less-than Alternative227
  • Double-Sided with a Not-Equal Alternative228
  • When the Parameter Is a Mean229
  • Chapter 10 Exercises232
  • Reading Check232
  • Beyond the Numbers232
  • 1. One and Done232
  • 2. Party Green233
  • 3. Got No Satisfaction?233
  • 4. Cancer Treatment234
  • 5. Vytorin Verified235
  • 6. Mary Jane Brain236
  • 7. Eureka or Not?237
  • 8. Better than Chance?238
  • 9. Crowd Control239
  • 10. A Tail of Two Hypotheses240
  • 11. Mean from the Corps241
  • 12. Double Trouble243
  • 13. New Use for Old Intervals245
  • Projects246
  • 1. Conducting a Formal Survey: Part III246
  • 2. Designing Your Own Experiment: Part III248
  • 3. Reality Video249

 

  • CHAPTER 11: Hypothesis Testing: Importance of Clinical Significance251
  • Introduction251
  • Informal Assessment of Practical Significance252
  • Structured Assessment of Practical Significance256
  • Minimal Clinically Important Difference256
  • The Idea of Effect Size258
  • From Effect Size to Sample Size259
  • Chapter 11 Exercises263
  • Reading Check263
  • Beyond the Numbers263
  • 1. Effect Size Matters263
  • 2. The Economics of No Significance264
  • 3. The N Crowd265
  • 4. Multivitamins and Cancer267
  • 5. A Measure of Effect for Proportions268
  • Projects269
  • 1. Effect Size and Error Rate269
  • 2. Designing Your Own Experiment: Part IV270
  • 3. Reality Video272

 

  • CHAPTER 12: More than One Variable: Association and Correlation273
  • Introduction273
  • Measurement Levels273
  • Association for Ratio Data274
  • Graphical Representation of Association274
  • Numerical Assessment of Association278
  • Transforming a Curvilinear Scatter281
  • Association for Nominal Data283
  • Graphical Representation of Association283
  • Numerical Assessment of Association284
  • Chapter 12 Exercises288
  • Reading Check288
  • Beyond the Numbers288
  • 1. Data Leveling288
  • 2. Anscombe’s Activity290
  • 3. Mortality and Global Warming291
  • 4. Global Warming Transformed292
  • 5. Heptathletes293
  • 6. Cage the Pools295
  • 7. Smoking and Heart Health296
  • 8. Smoking and Heart Health297
  • Projects297
  • 1. Ball Park or Bull’s Eye?297
  • 2. Drug Deaths and Income299
  • 3. Reality Video300

 

  • CHAPTER 13: Association and Causation: More than Meets the Eye301
  • Introduction301
  • Spurious Curious302
  • Correlation as Evidence of Causation306
  • Simpson’s Paradox309
  • Chapter 13 Exercises311
  • Reading Check311
  • Beyond the Numbers311
  • 1. Biology for Breakfast311
  • 2. Mortality and Global Warming313
  • 3. Some Bran Flakes on My Doughnut, Please313
  • 4. College Sex at Berkeley314
  • 5. Race and the Death Penalty316
  • Projects318
  • 1. Experts’ Advice318
  • 2. I Got Your Simpson Right Here318
  • 3. Reality Video320

 

  • Appendix321
  • Introduction321
  • Quick Reference322
  • Tables324
  • Cancer Survival Data Table328
  • Child Mortality Rate and CO2 Emissions329
  • Standard Score Table334
  • Three Sample Rubrics for Assessing Group Work335
  • Peer Evaluation Form for Group Work335